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To
develop resources to enrich the study of time
series analysis at GCSE, to
investigate the possibility of extending the
study of time series beyond GCSE and to develop
an understanding of forecasting as used in
local businesses. |
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School:
Hautlieu School, Jersey |
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Fellow: Tomi Owens |
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Email: t.owens@hautlieu.sch.je |
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Interim Report |
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The three objectives I identified when applying
for the Gatsby Teacher Fellowship were: |
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To develop
resources for the teaching of forecasting
in GCSE Mathematics |
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To lobby for the introduction of
forecasting to AS and A2 Mathematics. |
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To identify companies currently using
forecasting as part of their business
planning and to find ways for these
companies to share their expertise with
students. |
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The first objective is the most clearly
defined, because any developments must fall
within the confines of the UK’s National
Curriculum. Simple time series are part of
the National Curriculum, so I have begun to
develop new resources and have demonstrated
some active learning approaches to the teaching
of time series at meetings of Mathematics
teachers from schools in Jersey. I have already
run an initial trial of my methods at my school
and now I am performing an evaluation in order
to produce improved versions of the materials
and to extend the range of resources. My aim
is to complete a suite of interactive tasks
and worksheets as well as more traditional
learning materials. |
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This is the area in which I
have made most progress. It now remains for
me to finalise the materials and to begin
the process of dissemination. I need to prepare
an article for publication. I need to contact
MEI about the possibility of making a presentation
at their annual conference. |
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The second objective is linked to the fact
that forecasting does not currently appear
in any of the AS or A2 teaching specifications
for Mathematics or Statistics. I believe that
there is much value in it being introduced
and have made an initial proposal to the members
of the Statistics development group at MEI
for their consideration as the next round
of changes to the specifications begins. |
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This is the area where it feels
as if I have made least progress. After some
positive email responses to my ideas, things
have gone very quiet. I need to make further
enquiries about the likelihood of the Statistics
development group meeting. I need to explore
slightly different avenues (the Royal Society
of Statistics). |
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The third objective is related
to my belief that students should be made
aware of the practical applications of mathematics.
Forecasting is a routine task for the businesses
that constitute the finance industry, a vital
part of the economy in Jersey. I want to be
able to give our students real examples of
work that is going on in their community and
further afield. To this end I want to identify
companies that use forecasting and are prepared
to share some of their data or their methodology
with students. |
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In order to gain a broader
perspective on the forecasting community,
I attended the International Forecasting Summit
in Boston, MA from 25 to 27 September. This
is “the premier event for business forecasters
… where forecasters can learn from both
fellow forecasters and world-class forecasting
experts.” As well as using some of the
money from the Gatsby Fellowship, I received
grants from the Hautlieu Trust and the Department
of Education, Sport and Culture to help with
the cost of attending the Summit. I gained
much insight from the lectures on the technical
aspects of forecasting and these ideas will
certainly shape my teaching and, I hope, the
teaching of others with whom I will share
my experience. |
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There were also some fascinating
seminars led by people who make use of forecasting
in their organisations and I am confident
of being able to provide our students with
a range of situations in which their studies
can be applied. I always tell my students
that mathematics has applications in all manner
of areas, but even I was surprised by some
of the contexts within which forecasting plays
an important role. |
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Of perhaps even greater value
were the many conversations I held with the
others who were attending the Summit. After
being asked “Why should a teacher be
here?”, I had the opportunity to share
my desire to find ways of making the practical
applications of mathematical techniques more
accessible to our students. The response was
invariably positive and the contacts I have
made will form the basis of a set of case
histories. Written in a form that will be
accessible to students, these will detail
the use of forecasting methods in a wide range
of business applications. |
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The next step towards my third
objective is to identify companies in Jersey
that use forecasting. I have publicised my
Fellowship in the local media to raise a general
awareness and have now begun to search for
appropriate contacts. |
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In the longer term, I would like to organise
an event that would bring together business
planners and students from across Jersey.
There would be workshops where students would
be able to see how the mathematics they learn
in the classroom is being used on a daily
basis. There would be seminars where experts
in business forecasting could advise some
of our local businesses on techniques they
could use to improve their planning for the
future. There would be debates about climate
change, population growth and the cost of
housing. Local employers would describe the
skills they are looking for in future employees.
Representatives from Higher Education providers
would explain how these skills could be gained. |
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I feel that after a good start
in this area progress has slowed down somewhat.
I am still waiting to hear from five companies
who initially expressed an interest in providing
some information to build the set of case
studies. I need to meet with the Head of Business
Studies to identify the companies with whom
my school has existing links and contact them.
I need to meet with members of Jersey’s
Statistics Unit. |
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